Crash Course in prediction and mitigation for a crashing system
a complex biocultural sociological perspective of sudden social decline
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29015/cerem.966Słowa kluczowe:
complex systems, disaster managementAbstrakt
Aim: To present a condensed but inclusive discussion of the nature of the complex global system and the impediments to, but also the advantages of, means of prediction and action in a rapidly declining society to offer a compendium of the potential to assess the difficulty of predicting complex social systems.
Research methods: A review and synthesis of research material on: the function of dissipative systems, most specifically the global social system; the means to discern, measure and assess three kinds of energy through functional networks; the intractable difficulties with prediction and agency.
Conclusions: Regardless the inherent difficulty in prediction and agency in complex systems, there is a benefit to having some methodology. That is, it is better to understand how the system works, and to be able to identify, if just a short while in advance, what might happen and what responses we might have, and to do that we need to have an organized way to look at things.
Originality / value of the article: Offers, to a broad variety of large and small organizations, a brief guide to conceptualizing the global system, its functioning parts and sources of energy, and the imperative and difficulty of predicting and strategizing for changes in a declining system.
Implications of the research: There is benefit to a thorough understanding of the complex social system, if it allows prediction and response to system changes.
Limitations of the research: It is a “crash course”, and ideas are explored but not exhaustively described.
JEL: D91, E71, H12
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Prawa autorskie (c) 2023 Wyższa Szkoła Bankowa we Wrocławiu
Utwór dostępny jest na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa – Użycie niekomercyjne – Bez utworów zależnych 4.0 Międzynarodowe.
Autor przenosi nieodpłatnie na Wyższą Szkołę Bankową we Wrocławiu , bez ograniczeń terytorialnych, majątkowe prawa autorskie do tego utworu w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 4 lutego 1994 roku o prawie autorskim i prawach pokrewnych ( Dz.U. 1994, Nr 24, poz. 83 ze zm. )na zasadzie wyłączności, tj. prawo do:
a) wyłącznego używania i wykorzystania utworu w dowolnej działalności przez Wyższą Szkołę Bankową we Wrocławiu, w szczególności w działalność Biblioteki Cyfrowej uruchomionej przez Wyższą Szkołę Bankową we Wrocławiu
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c) zamieszczenia wybranych fragmentów utworu w celach promocyjnych w publikacjach, materiałach promocyjnych, w sieci Internet oraz sieciach wewnętrznych typu Intranet Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej we Wrocławiu,
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