Demand deficiency, money velocity and heterogeneity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29015/cerem.865Słowa kluczowe:
Demand Deficiency, Money Velocity, Heterogeneity, Wealth Distribution, Agent Based ModellingAbstrakt
Aim: Money velocity data for the United States show that there is a decline in all of the broad money aggregates in recent decades. This points to a sustained demand deficiency element. Can consumer heterogeneity be the cause of this declining trend? The aim of this paper is to find an answer for this question.
Design / Research Methods: To achieve our aim we use Agent Based Modelling (ABM). In our model, the agents are heterogeneous consumers with different spending propensities.
Conclusions / findings: We show that heterogeneous consumers with different spending propensities alone puts a downward pressure on money velocity. This pressure is coupled with a sustained worsening in the wealth distribution. We observe that as money accumulates in the hands of agents with the lowest propensity to spend, money velocity keeps declining. This also puts a downward pressure on nominal aggregate demand and hence a deflationary bias on the general price level.
Originality / value of the article: This paper shows that heterogeneity of economic agents should not be ignored and that ABM is a very powerful tool to analyse heterogeneity.
Implications of the research: The implication for policy makers is that the demand deficiency associated with the fall in money velocity will persist until the worsening of wealth dispersion comes to a halt.
Bibliografia
Arthur W.B. (1991), Designing economic agents that act like human agents. A behavioral approach to bounded rationality, “American Economic Review”, vol. 81, no. 2, pp. 353-359.
Asano Y., Kolp J.J., Heitzig J., Farmer J.D. (2019), Emergent inequality and endogenous dynamics in a simple behavioral economic model, ,,INET Oxford Working Paper”, no. 2019-11.
Axtell R.L., Clinton J.A., Small M.J. (2002), Agent-based modelling and industrial ecology, “Journal of Industrial Ecology”, vol. 5 no. 4, pp. 10-13.
Basci E, Basci S., Lamani A. (2019), Demand Deficiency in G7 Countries [unpublished work].
Benk S., Gillman M., Kejak M. (2010), A banking explanation of the US money velocity: 1919-2004, “Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control”, vol. 34 no. 4, pp. 765-779.
Blundell-Wignall A., Rondoni M., Ziegelschmidt H. (1984), The demand for money and velocity in major OECD countries, OECD Economics and Statistics Department Working Papers, no. 13.
Chowdhury A.R. (1988), Velocity and the variability of money growth. Some international evidence, “Economics Letters”, vol. 27 no. 4, pp. 355-360.
Darrat A.F., Suliman M.O. (1994), Volatility of money growth and the US velocity puzzle. Some further results, “Journal of Economics and Business”, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 77-88.
Fisher D., Serletis A. (1989), Velocity and the growth of money in United States, 1970-1985, “Journal of Macroeconomics”, vol. 11 no. 3, pp. 323-332.
Friedman M. (1983), Monetary variability. United States and Japan, “Journal of Money, Credit and Banking”, vol. 15 no. 3, pp. 339-343.
Hall T.E., Noble N. (1987), Velocity and variability of monetary growth. Evidence from Granger Causality Tests, “Journal of Money, Credit and Banking”, vol. 19, pp. 112-116.
Karamcheva N. (2016), Trends in family wealth, 1989 to 2013, Congress of the United States Congressional Budget Office Report, https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51846-familywealth.pdf [25.04.2020].
Kirman A.P. (1992), Whom or what does the representative individual represent?, “Journal of Economic Perspectives”, vol. 6 no. 2, pp. 117-136.
LeBaron B., (2001), A builder’s guide to agent-based financial markets, “Quantitative Finance”, vol. 1 no. 2, pp. 254-261.
Mascaro A., Meltzer A.H. (1983), Long and short term interest rates in a risky world, “Journal of Monetary Economics”, vol. 12 no. 4, pp. 151-200.
Mehra Y.P. (1989), Velocity and the variability of money growth. Evidence from Granger-Causality Test reevaluated, “Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking””, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 262-266.
Payne J.E. (1992), Velocity and money growth variability. Some further evidence, “International Review of Economics & Finance”, vol. 1 no 2, pp. 189-194.
Payne J.E. (1993), Re-examination of the velocity-money growth variability debate, “Journal of Economics ad Dynamics”, vol. 17 no. 1, pp. 127-133.
Santoni G.J. (1987), Changes in wealth and the money velocity, “Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis”, March, pp. 16-26.
Zhao W., Lu Y., Feng G. (2019), How many agents are rational in China’s economy? Evidence from a heterogeneous agent-based new Keynesian model, “Computational Economics”, vol. 54, pp. 575-611.
Pobrania
Opublikowane
Numer
Dział
Licencja
Autor przenosi nieodpłatnie na Wyższą Szkołę Bankową we Wrocławiu , bez ograniczeń terytorialnych, majątkowe prawa autorskie do tego utworu w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 4 lutego 1994 roku o prawie autorskim i prawach pokrewnych ( Dz.U. 1994, Nr 24, poz. 83 ze zm. )na zasadzie wyłączności, tj. prawo do:
a) wyłącznego używania i wykorzystania utworu w dowolnej działalności przez Wyższą Szkołę Bankową we Wrocławiu, w szczególności w działalność Biblioteki Cyfrowej uruchomionej przez Wyższą Szkołę Bankową we Wrocławiu
b) wytwarzania, utrwalania i zwielokrotniania egzemplarzy utworów wszelkimi technikami, w tym techniką drukarską, reprograficzną, zapisu magnetycznego oraz techniką cyfrową, w szczególności ich zwielokrotniania poprzez dokonywanie zapisów na płytach typu CD,
c) zamieszczenia wybranych fragmentów utworu w celach promocyjnych w publikacjach, materiałach promocyjnych, w sieci Internet oraz sieciach wewnętrznych typu Intranet Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej we Wrocławiu,
d) wprowadzania utworu do pamięci komputera Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej we Wrocławiu,
e) kopiowania i powielania utworu w technologiach fotomechanicznych lub innych znanych w dniu zawarcia umowy (fotokopie, kserokopie itp.),
f) przetworzenia dzieła na formę elektroniczną i nieograniczonego rozpowszechniania w sieci Internet.