Prognosis: accuracy and the horizon
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29015/cerem.191Keywords:
prognosis, accuracy, horizon, processes of long durationAbstract
The study shows the search capabilities for long-term predictions of accuracy comparable in relevancy to that of short-term forecasts. Consideration was also given to the processes of different duration and different schedules of random component. The focus was given to the processes of long duration, i.e. heavy development trends, seen in long time intervals. For these processes, which can overlap heterogeneity at a random component, sometimes combined with clustering of variance of this component, reliable long-term forecasts can be obtained, provided additional information about the same processes, but emerging in other facilities than forecast are used
This additional information may be used to make prognosis using spatial-temporal analogy or only the choice of the form of the trend function.References
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