Devaluation and stock prices

Abstract

Aim: The study evaluated the causal link between exchange rate devaluation and stock prices in African stock markets within the African region, namely, Zambia, Nigeria, Uganda, Tunisia, Tanzania, Botswana, Indonesia, Egypt, South Africa, and Malaysia.

Research method: The Toda-Yamamoto (T-Y) Granger causality methodology which entails a determination of maximum order of integration, determination of optimal lag length, and finally conducting the T-Y causality test based on augmented var k + dmax was used in the study. We also deployed the ARDL model to estimate the effects of devaluation on stock prices in Africa. To accommodate issues of endogeneity, we further implemented dynamic panel model estimation to unravel the true effects of exchange rate devaluation on stock prices.

Findings: Currency devaluation and the consumer prices negatively impacted stock prices by 3.6% and 3.2% respectively in the short term period following a 1% rise in devaluation and consumer prices. In the long-term period, a 1% rise in currency devaluation and consumer price level stimulated 1.45% and 0.68% reductions in stock prices respectively in ten developing African countries. The lending interest rate also significantly and positively impacted stock market prices over the long-term period by 0.25% following a 1% rise in lending rate, whereas, in the short-term period, a 1% rise in lending rate stimulated 0.38% decline in stock prices of the ten African countries.

Originality: in this research, we executed the Toda-Yamamoto granger causality methodology in explaining the causal relation between exchange rate devaluation and stock prices in ten developing African countries and with the ARDL model, the study estimated the effects of devaluation on stock prices in Africa.

Contributions: The research is a contribution to a remarkable long-run connection linking stock market price, exchange rate and price index. Though there was a remarkable long-term association linking them, the outcome also showed an essential short-run relationship linking stock market price, consumer price index and interest rate.

Limitations: This research is limited to ten countries within the African region. This choice of countries was made on basis of the available data. Hence, data could be sought on additional developing countries and estimation done for a larger sample of countries to obtain results that can be used to generalize the causality between devaluation and stock price movements.