The Impact of Climate Change on the Value of Growing Maize as a Biofuel
Aim: According to COP23, Climate Change threatens the stability of the planet’s ecosystems, with a tipping point believed to be at only +2°C. With the burning of fossil fuels, held responsible for the release of much of the greenhouse gases, a sensible world- wide strategy is to replace fossil fuel energy sources with renewable ones. The renewable resources such as wind, hydro, geothermal, wave and tidal energies are found in particular geographical locations whereas almost every country is potentially able to exploit PV and biomass. This paper examines the role that changing climate could have on the growing and processing of biomass. The primary concern is that future climates could adversely affect the yield of crops, and hence the potential contribution of biomass to the strategy to combat climate change. Maize, a C4 crop, was selected for the study because it can be processed into biogas or other biofuels. Four different Nigerian agricultural zones growing maize were chosen for the study. Long-term weather data was available for the four sites and this permitted the modelling of future climates.
Design / Research methods: The results of this study come from modelling future climates and applying this to crop models. This unique work, which has integrated climate change and crop modelling to forecast yield and carbon emissions, reveals how maize responds to the predicted increased temperature, change in rainfall, and the variation in weather patterns. In order to fully assess a biomass crop, the full energy cycle and carbon emissions were estimated based on energy and materials inputs involved in farm management: fertilizer application, and tillage type. For maize to support the replacement strategy mentioned above it is essential that the ratio of energy output to energy input exceeds 1, but of course it should be as large as possible.
Conclusions / findings: Results demonstrate that the influence of climate change is important and in many scenarios, acts to reduce yield, but that the negative effects can be partially mitigated by careful selection of farm management practices. Yield and carbon footprint is particularly sensitive to the application rate of fertilizer across all locations whilst climate change is the causal driver for the increase in net energy and carbon footprint at most locations. Nonetheless, in order to ensure a successful strategic move towards a low carbon future, and sustainable implementation of biofuel policies, this study provides valuable information for the Nigerian government and policy makers on potential AEZs to cultivate maize under climate change. Further research on the carbon footprint of alternative bioenergy feedstock to assess their environmental carbon footprint and net energy is strongly suggested.
Originality / value of the article: This paper extends the review on the impact of climate change on maize production to include future impacts on net energy use and carbon footprint using a fully integrated assessment framework. Most studies focus only on current farm energy use and historical climate change impact on farm GHG emissions.
Bessou C., Lehuger, S., Gabrielle, B., Mary, B. (2013), Using a Crop Model to Account for the Effects of Local Factors on the LCA of Sugar Beet Ethanol in Picardy Region, France, ,,The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, vol. 18 no. 1, pp. 24–36.
Corbeels M., Berre, D., Rusinamhodzi, L., Lopez-Ridaura, S. (2018), Can We Use Crop Modelling for Identifying Climate Change Adaptation Options? ,,Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol 256–257, pp. 46–52.
Ezeaku I.E., Okechukwu, E.C., Aba, C. (2014), Climate Change Effects on Maize ( Zea Mays ) Production in Nigeria and Strategies for Mitigation, ,,Asian Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 5 no. 12, pp. 862–871.
FoodBusinessAfrica. (2017), Soaring Maize Price in Nigeria Defies Two-Year Trend, https://www.foodbusinessafrica.com/2017/06/30/soaring-maize-price-in-nigeria-defies-two-year-trend/ [24. 08. 2018].
Hartley A., Jones, R., Janes, T. (2015), Projections of Change in Ecosystem Services under Climate Change, http://www.unep-wcmc.org [26. 12. 2018].
Liska A.J., Yang, H.S., Bremer, V.R., Klopfenstein, T.J., Walters, D.T., Erickson, G.E., Cassman, K.G. (2009), Improvements in Life Cycle Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Corn-Ethanol, Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 13 no. 1, pp. 58–74.
Ma B.L., Liang, B.C., Biswas, D.K., Morrison, M.J., McLaughlin, N.B. (2012), The Carbon Footprint of Maize Production as Affected by Nitrogen Fertilizer and Maize-Legume Rotations, Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, vol. 94 no. 1, pp. 15–31.
Magugu J.W. (2016), Agro-Climatic Change, Crop Production and Mitigation Strategies-Case Studies in Arkansas, USA and Kenya. PhD thesis. University of Arkansas, https://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/1647 [13. 8. 2018].
Mereu V., Santini, M., Cervigni, R., Augeard, B., Bosello, F., Scoccimarro, E., Spano, D., Valentini, R. (2018), Robust Decision Making for a Climate- Resilient Development of the Agricultural Sector in Nigeria, in: Climate Smart Agriculture, ed. Lipper L., McCarthy N., Zilberman D., Asfaw S., B.G., vol. 52. Springer, Cham.
Niang I., Ruppel, O.C., Abdrabo, M.A., Essel, A., Lennard, C., Padgham, J., Urquhart, P. (2014), Africa, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. Barros V.R., Field C.B., Dokken D.J., Mastrandrea M.D., Mach K.J., Bilir T.E., Chatterjee M., Ebi K.L., Estrada Y.O., Genova R.C., Girma B., Kissel E.S., Levy A.N., MacCracken S., Mastrandrea P.R., White L.L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 1199–1265.
Nwaogu C., Olawoyin, M.A., Kavianu, V.A., Pavlů, V. (2016), Soil Dynamics, Conservation and Food Supply in the Grassland Ecological Zone of Sub-Sahara Africa: The Need for Sustainable Agroecosystem Management for Maize (Zea Mays), Development, Environment and Foresight, vol. 2 no. 2, pp. 61–79.
Ohunakin O.S., Adaramola, M.S., Oyewola, O.M., Fagbenle, R.O. (2014), Solar Energy Applications and Development in Nigeria: Drivers and Barriers, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 32 pp. 294–301.
Olaniyan A.B. (2015), Maize: Panacea for Hunger in Nigeria, African Journal of Plant Science, vol. 9 no. 3, pp. 155–174.
Parkes B., Defrance, D., Sultan, B., Ciais, P., Wang, X. (2018), Projected Changes in Crop Yield Mean and Variability over West Africa in a World 1.5 K Warmer than the Pre-Industrial Era, Earth System Dynamics, vol. 9 no. 1, pp. 119–134.
Traore B. (2014), Climate Change, Climate Variability and Adaptation Options in Smallholder Cropping Systems of the Sudano-Sahel Region in West Africa. PhD thesis. Wageningen University, https://agritrop.cirad.fr/575092/1/document_575092.pdf [13. 6. 2018].
USDA. (2018), Nigeria: Grain and Feed Annual, https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent GAIN Publications/Grain and Feed Annual_Lagos_Nigeria_4-12-2018.pdf [25. 01. 2019].
World Bank. (2016), Nigeria GDP Data, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=NG [24. 06. 2018].
The aim of CEREM is to make scientific work available in accordance with the principle of open access. The rules mentioned below are important, as they enable CEREM and its publisher, the WSB University in Wrocław, to distribute the scientific work to a wide public while complying with specific legal requirements, at the same time protecting the rights of the authors.
The author transfers to the WSB University in Wrocław, free of charge and without territorial limitations, with all proprietary copyrights to the said piece of work in the understanding of the act of 4th February 1994 on copyrights and derivative rights (Journal of Laws of 1994, no. 24, item 83, as amended) on an exclusivity basis, i.e. the rights to:
1. Make the piece of work in question available via the Digital Library established by the WSB University in Wrocław.
2. Produce, record and reproduce in multiple copies the piece of work using any techniques whatsoever, including printing, reprography, magnetic recording and digital processing, and particularly its reproduction by recording on CDs and similar data carriers,
3. Use fragments of the piece of work for promotional purposes in publications, promotional materials, the Internet and Intranet type networks managed by the WSB University in Wrocław.
4. Store the piece of work into computer databases managed by the WSB University in Wrocław.
5. Copy and reproduce the piece of work using photo-mechanic technologies other than those commonly known at the time of the signature hereof (photocopies, Xerox copies etc.),
6. Process the piece of work, transferring it into an electronic form, and distribute it on the Internet without limitations.