Application of discriminant models in predicting a company’s risk of bankruptcy
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29015/cerem.287Keywords:
bankruptcy, company’s bankruptcy, discriminant modelsAbstract
Aim: The aim of the paper is to review Polish discriminant models and their application to predict bankruptcy on the examples of selected joint stock companies in the years 2013 – 2015.
Research method: The paper was written on the basis of literature search within the scope discussed. Further, the authors carried out their own examination of certain joint stock companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). The discriminant analysis was conducted on the basis of financial statements of the selected companies using Mączynska’s model, the model developed by Gajdka and Stos, Hadasik’s model and the Poznański model.
Findings: The analysis shows that not all discriminant models reflect changes in the financial condition of a company. Nevertheless, they are a good tool to evaluate the risk of failure, provided that more than one model are used.
Originality /value of the paper /scholarly contribution: Discriminant models are universal, which means that they can be applied to any company, regardless of the industry they operate in. The results of the analysis can be used as a basis for further studies on the accurate adjustment of discriminant models to companies, depending on the type of business.References
Gajdka J., Stos D., Wykorzystanie analizy dyskryminacyjnej w ocenie kondycji finansowej przedsiębiorstw, w: Restrukturyzacja w procesie przekształceń i rozwoju przedsiębiorstw, red. nauk. R. Borowiecki, AE Kraków, 1996.
Galbarczyk T., Świderska J., Bank komercyjny w Polsce. Podręcznik akademicki, Difin, Warszawa 2011.
Hadasik D., Upadłość przedsiębiorstw w Polsce i metody jej prognozowania, Zeszyty Naukowe, Seria II: prace habilitacyjne, zeszyt 153, AE Poznań, 1998.
Hamrol M., Chodakowski J., Prognozowanie zagrożenia finansowego. Wartość predykcyjna polskich modeli analizy dyskryminacyjnej, Badania operacyjne i decyzyjne nr 3/2008, AE Poznań 2008.
Kisielińska J., Waszkowski A., Polskie modele prognozowania bankructwa przedsiębiorstw i ich weryfikacja, Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW nr 82, 2010.
Mączyńska E., Zawadzki E., Dyskryminacyjne modele predykcji bankructwa przedsiębiorstw, Ekonomista 2006, nr 2.
Rólczyński T., Ocena trafności prognoz upadłości przedsiębiorstw wyznaczonych na podstawie funkcji dyskryminacyjnych, [w:] Prace naukowe AE we Wrocławiu nr 1112, Prognozowanie w zarządzaniu firmą, Wyd. AE Wrocław 2006.
Tłuczak A., Zastosowanie dyskryminacyjnych modeli przewidywania bankructwa do oceny ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw, Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej we Wrocławiu, nr 2 (34)/2013.
Bankruptcy and Restructuring Act of 28 February 2003, Journal of Laws No 60 item 535) www.analizy-prognozy.pl/dyskryminacyjna.html, [06.04.2016]
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
The aim of CEREM is to make scientific work available in accordance with the principle of open access. The rules mentioned below are important, as they enable CEREM and its publisher, the WSB Merito University in Wroclaw, to distribute the scientific work to a wide public while complying with specific legal requirements, at the same time protecting the rights of the authors.
The author transfers to the WSB Merito University in Wroclaw, free of charge and without territorial limitations, with all proprietary copyrights to the said piece of work in the understanding of the act of 4th February 1994 on copyrights and derivative rights (Journal of Laws of 1994, no. 24, item 83, as amended) on an exclusivity basis, i.e. the rights to:
1. Make the piece of work in question available via the Digital Library established by the WSB Merito University in Wroclaw.
2. Produce, record and reproduce in multiple copies the piece of work using any techniques whatsoever, including printing, reprography, magnetic recording and digital processing, and particularly its reproduction by recording on CDs and similar data carriers,
3. Use fragments of the piece of work for promotional purposes in publications, promotional materials, the Internet and Intranet type networks managed by the WSB Merito University in Wroclaw.
4. Store the piece of work into computer databases managed by the WSB Merito University in Wroclaw.
5. Copy and reproduce the piece of work using photo-mechanic technologies other than those commonly known at the time of the signature hereof (photocopies, Xerox copies etc.),
6. Process the piece of work, transferring it into an electronic form, and distribute it on the Internet without limitations.
